Gold’s 2025 rally meets a shift in Federal Reserve policy
Gold’s advance gathered pace in the first half of September 2025. In an update published on September 17, the World Gold Council put the metal’s year-to-date gain at about 40%, using the LBMA Gold Price PM benchmark as of September 15.
The council attributed August’s gains to a weaker US dollar, geopolitical tensions and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. It also identified lower Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as support for the rally into September.
On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4%–4.25%. Its statement pointed to slower job gains and greater downside risks to employment, while noting that inflation remained elevated.
The figures describe a particular point in the market’s history. Gold-price comparisons depend on the benchmark and time of observation: a daily London benchmark, an intraday spot quote and a futures contract are different measurements. The council’s 40% figure was a measured gain, not a promise about the metal’s next price.