OPEC+ is poised to continue its strategy of gradually increasing oil production, with projections indicating an additional 137,000 barrels per day are likely to be approved at their upcoming meeting. This planned increment follows a series of output adjustments initiated earlier in the year, all strategically designed to reclaim market share and capitalize on elevated crude prices.
The coalition, which collectively influences approximately half of the global oil supply, comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied producers, notably Russia. Since reversing its previous production cutback policy, OPEC+ has already implemented hikes totaling over 2.5 million barrels per day, representing a significant percentage of worldwide demand. This policy shift was partly influenced by international pressure to moderate oil prices.
Discussions surrounding the final stages of production rollback are intensifying as oil prices show upward momentum. The decision on the November increase, anticipated to mirror October’s 137,000 barrels per day adjustment, is scheduled for an online meeting on October 5, involving eight key OPEC+ members. Neither the group nor Saudi Arabia’s oil ministry has provided official comment on the matter.
Market Dynamics and Price Volatility
Since the group began unwinding its production cuts in April, crude oil prices have largely fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel. However, recent geopolitical events, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, have disrupted refining operations and oil shipments, contributing to a surge in prices that surpassed the $70 mark, reaching their highest level since August 1.
Historically, at its peak production restriction, OPEC+ had removed 5.85 million barrels per day from the market. This reduction was structured in three phases: voluntary cuts amounting to 2.2 million bpd, an additional 1.65 million bpd reduction by eight member nations, and a broader 2 million bpd cut implemented by the entire group. These measures were enacted to stabilize prices during periods of diminished demand.
The current phase of production rollback is actively underway. The eight participating countries commenced the phased removal of the 1.65 million bpd allocation this month, coinciding with the recent 137,000 bpd increase. These nations had previously committed to fully reversing the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts by the end of September. The substantial 2 million bpd reduction remains in effect and is expected to persist until the end of 2026.
Additionally, the United Arab Emirates received specific authorization to increase its individual production capacity by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September, operating under a separate accord within the larger OPEC+ framework.
Despite these planned increases, industry assessments suggest that many member nations are already operating at their maximum production capabilities. Consequently, announced output hikes may not always translate directly into commensurate increases in actual delivered barrels to the market.
Sophia Patel brings deep expertise in portfolio management and risk assessment. With a Master’s in Finance, she writes practical guides and in-depth analyses to help investors build and protect their wealth.