EU ‘Cocoa Inflation’ Accelerates: What’s Driving Europe’s Rising Chocolate Prices?

In May 2025, European Union prices for cocoa and powdered chocolate experienced a significant surge, climbing over 16% year-on-year. This rapid acceleration, termed ‘cocoa inflation’ by Eurostat, saw its rate escalate dramatically from 6.3% to 16.2% within a single year, underscoring a critical vulnerability in global supply chains. The EU, entirely dependent on cocoa imports, accounts for more than half of the world’s cocoa purchases, placing it directly at the forefront of these market shifts.

• European Union cocoa and powdered chocolate prices soared over 16% year-on-year in May 2025.
• Eurostat’s ‘cocoa inflation’ rate accelerated from 6.3% to 16.2% within one year.
• The EU is entirely reliant on cocoa imports, accounting for over half of global purchases.
• Cocoa bean prices have nearly tripled over the past two years due to adverse weather in West Africa and rising energy/sugar costs.
• The world’s largest chocolate producer, Barry Callebaut, reportedly laid off 20% of its global workforce.
• Analysts anticipate no substantial decline in European cocoa and chocolate prices in the near future due to climate change and trade uncertainties.

The Drivers of Escalating Cocoa Costs

The primary catalyst behind these escalating costs is a dramatic increase in cocoa bean prices over the past two years, exacerbated by parallel rises in energy and sugar expenses. The vast majority of cocoa destined for the EU originates from West Africa, where major producing nations such as Ghana and Ivory Coast have confronted severe harvest disruptions. These disruptions are largely attributable to adverse weather conditions, highlighting the inherent fragility of the global cocoa supply chain in the face of climatic shocks.

Market Dynamics and Price Volatility

Despite some recent reprieve, the global cocoa market remains characterized by considerable volatility. Cocoa prices, having nearly tripled over the past two years and reaching record levels last year, have eased from peaks exceeding $12,000 per metric tonne. However, they continue to trade at elevated levels on major exchanges, including the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London. For instance, London Cocoa Futures recently stood at approximately £5,310 ($7,236) per metric tonne, a figure still more than double the price recorded two years prior. While reports indicate that consumer willingness to absorb higher prices has incentivized growers to invest, leading to a marginal improvement in the short-term supply outlook, underlying risks persist.

Long-Term Outlook and Persistent Headwinds

The long-term price outlook for cocoa faces substantial headwinds, primarily driven by climate change-related issues. These include the proliferation of diseases such as black pod and the widespread prevalence of aging cocoa trees, both of which continue to significantly threaten yields in key producing regions. Furthermore, the landscape of trade uncertainty, stemming from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, adds another layer of complexity. Analysts suggest this confluence of environmental and geopolitical factors will limit any significant downside in cocoa prices. According to a recent report by UK-based strategic consultancy Foresight Transitions, European cocoa and chocolate prices are unlikely to experience substantial declines in the foreseeable future.

Economic Repercussions Across Europe

The ripple effects of these sustained high prices are becoming increasingly evident across the European economy. Escalating cocoa costs are placing considerable pressure on chocolate manufacturers, who are simultaneously contending with rising energy expenses and general wage growth. This compounding strain has translated into tangible economic consequences across the value chain. Notably, Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate producer, reportedly implemented significant workforce reductions, laying off nearly 20% of its global staff, with approximately one-third of those job losses occurring within the European Union. In the United Kingdom, for example, the cost of chocolate in May 2025 was 17.7% higher than the previous year, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Industry experts anticipate continued price volatility, largely attributed to the unpredictable weather patterns—ranging from severe droughts to extreme rainfall—that disproportionately affect cocoa farmers globally.