Nvidia Earnings: Will China Revenue Shape NVDA’s Guidance?

As Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) approaches its pivotal earnings announcement, a critical determinant for its future financial trajectory rests on a single question: whether its guidance will integrate revenue streams from the Chinese market. Geopolitical complexities, particularly U.S. export regulations concerning advanced semiconductors, present a significant headwind, compelling analysts to meticulously scrutinize the chip giant’s outlook despite its otherwise robust growth in the artificial intelligence sector.

According to John Vinh, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, the inclusion of China in Nvidia’s forward-looking guidance could contribute an incremental $2-3 billion in revenue. While KeyBanc anticipates strong second-quarter results, primarily fueled by demand for Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell GPUs, there is a prevailing expectation that the third-quarter guidance might adopt a conservative tone due to the ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding export licenses to China. This cautious approach mirrors that of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which similarly excluded China from its recent outlook amidst comparable regulatory concerns.

• Nvidia’s upcoming earnings guidance is critically dependent on the inclusion of China market revenue.
• U.S. export regulations for advanced semiconductors pose a significant geopolitical challenge.
• KeyBanc estimates China’s inclusion could add an incremental $2-3 billion in revenue.
• Strong second-quarter performance is anticipated, driven by demand for Blackwell GPUs.
• Third-quarter guidance is expected to be conservative due to regulatory uncertainties, similar to AMD’s recent stance.

Analyst Insights and Market Dynamics

Market Dynamics and Supply Chain Resilience

Despite the uncertainties surrounding China, Nvidia’s near-term growth narrative remains compelling. KeyBanc’s analysis indicates a substantial 40% surge in the supply of Nvidia’s Blackwell B200 GPU in the second quarter, with projections for an additional 20% increase in the third quarter. Concurrently, the deployment of the more advanced Blackwell Ultra (B300) is accelerating, reinforcing Nvidia’s dominant position in the high-performance AI chip market. The firm also revised its full-year shipment forecast for Nvidia’s rack-scale AI systems, known as GB200, upward to 30,000 units from a previous estimate of 25,000, attributing the improvement to enhanced yields and more efficient supply-chain execution.

Financial Outlook and Strategic Positioning

Financial Outlook and Strategic Adjustments

For the second quarter, KeyBanc increased its revenue estimate for Nvidia to $47.1 billion and its earnings per share to $1.05, both figures surpassing Wall Street consensus. However, the firm adopted a more conservative stance for the third quarter, reducing its revenue projection to $50.4 billion and EPS to $1.14. This conservative revision primarily stems from the ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding U.S. export licenses to China and the reported agreement for Nvidia to remit 15% of Chinese chip sales to the U.S. government, alongside China’s increasing emphasis on domestic AI chip development. While KeyBanc trimmed its fiscal 2026 forecasts due to these China-related risks, it simultaneously boosted its 2027 expectations. This longer-term optimism is predicated on stronger rack shipments driven by accelerating capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud providers such as Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG).

Investor Confidence and Market Sentiment

Despite the nuanced outlook, Wall Street maintains a largely bullish sentiment towards Nvidia. Morgan Stanley recently characterized Nvidia as the most undervalued megacap stock in the market. The company’s shares have demonstrated robust performance, rising over 30% year-to-date and exceeding 35% in the past 12 months, reflecting sustained investor confidence in its foundational role within the global artificial intelligence expansion.